Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

Improving access is a priority in the offshore wind sector, driven by opportunity to increase revenues, reduce costs, and improve safety at operational farms. This paper describes novel method for producing probabilistic forecasts of safety-critical conditions during crew transfers. Methods generating density significant wave height peak period are developed evaluated. It found that boosted semi-parametric models outperform those estimated via maximum likelihood, as well non-parametric approach. Scenario sea-state variables generated used inputs data-driven vessel motion model, based on telemetry recorded 700 enables production transfer up 5 days ahead. The above methodology implemented case study farm off east coast UK.